Ilham Salam, A. Arsunan Arsin, Atjo Wahyu, Agus Bintara Birawida, Aminuddin Syam, Anwar Mallongi, Sukri Palutturi, Farid Agushybana, Aisyah Aisyah, Ahmad Yani, Muhammad Akbar Nurdin, Rezki Elisafitri
BACKGROUND: Efforts to control the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) have been carried out intensively, however, there is no significant reduction in the number of DHF sufferers. Meanwhile, the predictive model is expected to be an early warning to anticipate the incidence of DHF. AIM: Therefore, this study aims to determine the dynamic model for predicting dengue fever incidence in Maros Regency from 2020 to 2040. METHODS: This study used the research and development (R and D) method with a dynamic systems approach. The study was conducted in Maros Regency and the data on dengue cases in Maros Regency from 2014 to 2018 were used as samples. Meanwhile, interpretive structural modeling (ISM) was used to determine policy scenarios in reducing dengue cases while the analysis of the dynamic model of dengue fever was conducted using the Powersim program. RESULTS: The critical elements of DHF prevention in the Maros Regency include the Jumantik program, 3M Plus, early warning systems, and outreach. Furthermore, the prediction of the average incidence of dengue fever from 2020 to 2040 has decreased based on dynamic model simulations by applying the Jumantik scenario (46.8%), 3M Plus (61.17%), early warning systems (74.4%), counseling (52.12%), and the combined scenario (97.87%). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of dengue fever in the Maros Regency is prevented and controlled by the combination of the Jumantik program, 3M Plus, early warning systems, and counseling. © 2021 Ilham Salam, A. Arsunan Arsin, Atjo Wahyu, Agus Bintara Birawida, Aminuddin Syam, Anwar Mallongi, Sukri Palutturi, Farid Agushybana, Aisyah Aisyah, Ahmad Yani, Muhammad Akbar Nurdin, Rezki Elisafitri.
Public Health Study Program, Faculty of Sports Science, Manado State University, Manado, Indonesia; Doctoral Study Program, Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, Indonesia; Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, Indonesia; Department of Occupational Safety and Health, Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, Indonesia; Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, Indonesia; Nutrition Study Program, Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, Indonesia; Department of Health Policy Administration, Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, Indonesia; Public Health Study Program, Faculty of Public Health, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia; Department of Agribusiness, Pangkajene Islands State Agricultural Polytechnic, Pangkep, Indonesia; Department of Health Promotion and Behavioral Sciences, Faculty of Public Health, University of Muhammadiyah Palu, Palu, Indonesia; Public Health Study Program, Faculty of Public Health, Cenderawasih University, Jayapura, Indonesia